The long tail of Bitcoin
Much has been said about the slow, nearly flat, adoption rate of Bitcoin in 2014. Unfortunately, many of the writers are to embed in the existing paradigm to understand why Bitcoin is different from previous technologies and why this adoption rate isn’t troubling. The first distinguishing factor is that Bitcoin is a protocol and not a proprietary technology, like say Apple Pay. With a proprietary tech or even a technology promoted by a group of companies, they can artificially inflate or accelerate adoption by virtue of the money they pour into it via marketing or leveraging pre-existing market share. With few exceptions (most notably Bitpay and the Bitcoin Bowl), Bitcoin’s major players do not have the money to market Bitcoin more broadly. That’s why many of them, like Circle, are taking the approach of obscuring the Bitcoin technology behind their sales pitch. They also don’t have the existing market capture of an Apple or Visa.
Some might counter than Bitcoin is more like the Internet, a protocol that doesn’t need to be promoted in its own right because it will grow by virtue of its use by companies and the public not its promotion. While true, there is also a distinct difference. Companies wanting to play in the early days of the Internet were not saddle by oppressive regulations. The early Internet was a wild west and still for the most part remains of the least regulated industries. Companies playing in the Bitcoin space, however, must meet increasing scrutiny of a skeptical regulatory regime in what is one of the more heavily regulated industries, banking and finance.
Some people keep looking for Bitcoin’s killer app. Money is Bitcoin’s (or the blockchain’s) killer app. The transfer of value unburden by the regulatory saddle is what makes Bitcoin useful. Unfortunately, any company wanting to promote, profit from and further Bitcoin reinjects that regulatory burden and removes the principle benefit of the technology. So how is Bitcoin going to grow?
Bitcoin shines by eliminating geographic boundaries. That may be because the sender and recipient are in different locations or because their base money is based on geography (issued by specific countries). As this benefit because apparent to people and businesses who suffer from market capture by intermediaries, they will gravitate to Bitcoin. Then, businesses that provide services to those people will begin taking Bitcoin in greater and greater numbers in order to take advantage of the spending power those users have. Unfortunately, this is not a quick growth curve. It will spread naturally through word of mouth and grass roots efforts. Bitcoin may take years to achieve any measurable market share and it will probably remain a niche market supporting those that most benefit from it.